SwingVWAP trade: $BYND

Here’s another trade I just closed out as I’m unwinding for my August shutdown. I went long $BYND on a close above the upper SwingVWAP on July 16 at the yellow line. My stop was the low of that breakout candle at the red long-dashed line. Two days of sideways and then it took off. On July 23 (the date this chart was made), the breakout to new highs followed by a big collapse that went back below the open got me to cash out. Good trade, right?

On the next day, $BYND held there, and then, of course, today happened:

As I keep preaching, things like this ruined me in the past, and ruin newer traders. Yes, I missed a big chunk of the move. If I were blinded by greed, I’d be upset that I didn’t get all of the move. If I were driven by fear, I’d be afraid of missing out on more if it keeps running. I’d chase here, and probably get blown up. Going into August, I’d give back all I made on this trade and then some I imagine as I would press and chase and look for things that aren’t there as revenge for missing out on all of a good move.

There’s so much opportunity in the markets when things are moving. Taking parts out of moves in spots that make sense is the way to consistent profits over time. Manage your risk and take some off the table. Go ahead and leave some, and be content with that.

Update on Swing VWAP $AAPL Trade

I decided to close my Swing VWAP trade in $AAPL. It’s been unable to close above the upper VWAP, so it looks weak here:

I’ll watch for a retrace and another setup.

Example Swing VWAP / RSI Divergence Trade: $AAPL

Here’s a trade I entered in Apple about 2 weeks ago where I used the Swing VWAP and the RSI MultiDivergence indicators.

Back in January, the market had gone through a good decline. I was watching the RSI divergence on AAPL. Around that time, a big divergence showed up. This was about the largest in the last two years, and is circled on the chart below. Because of that context, I wanted to look for a long entry. After the swing low on January 3, AAPL kept above the Swing VWAP. It pulled back close to the Swing VWAP, and then on January 15 it had a bullish reversal candle (white arrow). That means the bears are losing, since it couldn’t penetrate the lower VWAP. I entered at the end of the day (yellow line) with a stop at the prior day’s low Swing VWAP (red line), and a target at $185 based on prior resistance.

So far, the trade is going according to plan. My stop is at $160 now, and I just have to manage when I take profits–at the predetermined target or in a discretionary manner. I’m really liking the Swing VWAP for how it tracks what side is winning and what side is losing. As a trader, your money comes from the losers. Markets move because they have to, and that happens because people are blown out of their incorrect positions.

One Trade Today: S&P 500 e-mini (ES)

I took one quick trade just after the open today for +2.5 points. I annotated a chart with some of my thoughts during the trade:

I mentioned on twitter that when we open at or above R1 (or at or below S1) we tend to have a trend day more often than not. I’ll have to test that out and get the stats on it. But that along with the break above the first opening swing told me to go long. On the retrace, I stayed, and it paid. And of course, I got lucky too. But half of luck is preparation and having a plan, right?

A Monumental Day: The Eagle and the ES

Today was the 40th anniversary of the Apollo 11 landing. What an incredible feat of engineering, daring and national will! Lots of great coverage out there on the web if you are interested. The Eagle has landed! Here’s Neil at Tranquility Base from a camera on the top of the LM:

It was also a monumental day because I took my first trade since January. I played the open on the ES futures. I was watching a 133 tick chart on Think or Swim. My plan was to play a quick 2 point move off the earliest opening range balance, whether long or short. I also wanted to follow the direction of the internals. I wanted to be exposed to the market for as short a time as possible, so I would either have immediate follow-through (within a minute or two) or I would get out.

Here’s what my chart looked like when I made my move:

I saw that we were pausing near the upper end of the initial range (grey lines) and that there was about 2 points to run from there to the 944.75 pre-market highs. I was also watching these charts of the $TICK and the $ADVN-$DECN for confirmation:

You can see that as of 8:32 CT (9:32 ET) we were in the green on both internals and rising. I got long at 942.50, target 944.50, initial stop 941, just under R1 (red line w/dots). Here’s how the trade played out:

Just a quick hesitation and then off we went. As we thrashed near 942.50 for the first bar or three, I was sorely tempted to just bail out to lock in a tick of profit for my first trade back in the markets, for psychological reasons. I sat on my hands and made myself just watch–stick with the plan; I got my immediate follow through, and I was in the green. When we hit 943.75, I thought we would make it to my target, and as I went to move my stop up to breakeven, I was filled for +2 points. Mission accomplished in around two minutes.

I’m a better trader than I give myself credit for, and my years of watching the markets are starting to give me some “tape sense”. While I’m happy for a win (of course), I’m happier that I made myself follow the plan and stick with it, and that I got my feet back in the water at all. I’ve been avoiding it for far too long.

So break out a beverage today in celebration of Neil Armstrong, Buzz Aldrin, Mike Collins, and me. 🙂