Archive for July, 2019

SwingVWAP trade: $BYND

July 25, 2019

Here’s another trade I just closed out as I’m unwinding for my August shutdown. I went long $BYND on a close above the upper SwingVWAP on July 16 at the yellow line. My stop was the low of that breakout candle at the red long-dashed line. Two days of sideways and then it took off. On July 23 (the date this chart was made), the breakout to new highs followed by a big collapse that went back below the open got me to cash out. Good trade, right?

On the next day, $BYND held there, and then, of course, today happened:

As I keep preaching, things like this ruined me in the past, and ruin newer traders. Yes, I missed a big chunk of the move. If I were blinded by greed, I’d be upset that I didn’t get all of the move. If I were driven by fear, I’d be afraid of missing out on more if it keeps running. I’d chase here, and probably get blown up. Going into August, I’d give back all I made on this trade and then some I imagine as I would press and chase and look for things that aren’t there as revenge for missing out on all of a good move.

There’s so much opportunity in the markets when things are moving. Taking parts out of moves in spots that make sense is the way to consistent profits over time. Manage your risk and take some off the table. Go ahead and leave some, and be content with that.

A Look at a Few Charts Right Now

July 17, 2019

Going into August is the time I have historically lost the most in my trades. I overtrade and try to push something through when the markets are in a choppy, listless environment. So one of my rules is that I don’t trade from the end of July through Labor Day.

That said, here’s a few daily charts I’ve been watching and what I think my indicators are telling me. I’m mainly looking at the ProSwingVWAP and the Multi-Divergence Indicator v2 on the RSI(20). Also plotted in a gray line is an indicator I’m working on called AdaptiveSuperSmoother. I prefer it over moving averages. More on that later. On to the charts:

$SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

The broad market. As far as divergence, there isn’t any. No hint of weakness on a longer timeframe. The lower Swing VWAP is far below, so no definitive trend change. Since the middle of June we’ve broken the upper Swing VWAP 6 times. Today’s weakness doesn’t look good for continuing that streak, however. This looks like a textbook chart for sideways chop. This tells me take August off.

$AAPL (Apple Computer, Inc)

I am always and everywhere a big Apple fan. Slightest of slight bearish divergence. Nothing compared to what we saw at the end of April. I’d ignore that here. The upper Swing VWAP points are barely grinding higher, so no real bullish drive. Not near the recent high in May. The lower Swing VWAP is well below the current price, so no likely trend reversal indicated yet. All signs point to blowing up your account overtrading it in August.

$ROKU (Roku Inc.)

Roku has been a monster all year. Into June, a large bearish divergence showed up as it pushed above $100. We got a 10% drop after that, and the divergence ended. In the first part of July there was an upper Swing VWAP breakout at about $95. I most recently went long there at $97. Pushed back up to new highs where we are now. The drop today seems like a rejection of that newest high. The lower Swing VWAP is down at $100. Below $100 I’d look for a trend change to bearish. It would take strength above $114 to look like a continued uptrend. Another sideways chart, though I see more of a downside risk here. I’m still long here but wouldn’t add at this time, and will watch $100 closely.

$TSLA (Tesla Motors, Inc.)

Tesla is interesting here. A bullish divergence back in early June signaled a potential trend change upward. Tesla demolished upper Swing VWAP’s from that point onward. The lower Swing VWAP from that big reversal has still not been tested. Strong uptrend. The latest weakness today after another upper break doesn’t inspire confidence, and we are far from the Adaptive Super Smoother “average” price. Kind of extended. It looks like Tesla’s bull trend is still intact, but this isn’t the time to get on board, especially with the broad market likely to languish for a while. The upside target would likely be about $290 resistance from the April highs, but I wouldn’t expect that to happen until the fall. With earnings coming up between now and then, it’s a wait-and-see chart here.

So it’s a whole lot of nothing out there. Sit on your hands or play with Bitcoin pinless hand grenades. Crypto is making biotech names seem like investment grade. With the yield curve inverting and possible recession looming, the end of the year should be interesting.