Comments for Read the Prospectus

Comment on Market “Physics” by Prospectus

Prospectus — Fri, 24 May 2013 17:21:03 +0000

Looks like the whole coffee industry is going out of business

Comment on Market “Physics” by Murph

Murph — Thu, 23 May 2013 20:59:19 +0000

Greg,

I’ve been interested in your commentary and discussion with Prospectus.

I noticed in your last post, you had a comment that read:

“The probability of the position being a 100% loss on a 1:1 risk.reward basis is less than 3.5%”

I’m wondering how you came to that final number of 3.5%?

Is that specific to this position in JO or is that a probability that’s common across trades like these; selling premium and having a 1:1 risk/reward?

Any information is appreciated.

Comment on Market “Physics” by Greg P

Greg P — Mon, 13 May 2013 12:41:10 +0000

Forget looking at the way “the stock” is acting, as I have said that is mostly noise that you need to block out. Look at the strategy statistics such as time decay, the probabilities of the position moving to a losing position, ways to increase reward and decrease risk, lock in profits/losses etc … at this point your position is trivial, your maximum profit is $95 and your risk of losing on the position is less than 5%. The probability of the position being a 100% loss on a 1:1 risk.reward basis is less than 3.5%. You have to be adding to it, or making adjustments. Don’t touch the original position, just add to it to make it less risky or more reward or preferably both. Paper trade the position on what you think you should do at least. Waiting until the July contracts are available might make some sense, since the Sep duration I told you to sell, means that the Dec contracts are definitely too far out to play with.

Comment on Market “Physics” by Prospectus

Prospectus — Tue, 07 May 2013 19:27:41 +0000

I haven’t looked at modding the position yet, but I like the way the stock is acting so in just sitting on it anyway.

Comment on Swing High / Swing Low Indicator for Think or Swim by Prospectus

Prospectus — Wed, 01 May 2013 00:35:40 +0000

Just click the donate button on the blog and I’ll send the password to you. Donate what you think the indicator is worth to you. Here’s the link if the button is hard to find:

https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=3232548

Comment on Swing High / Swing Low Indicator for Think or Swim by Paul

Paul — Wed, 01 May 2013 00:12:22 +0000

Hi, How do I contact you for the download? Could you send it to my email address ? Thank you. Paul.

Comment on Market “Physics” by gregpastik

gregpastik — Tue, 30 Apr 2013 09:16:02 +0000

OK, embedded images do not work on your blog. See TOS PnL chart. http://i.imgur.com/IaXHu4T.png

Comment on Market “Physics” by gregpastik

gregpastik — Tue, 30 Apr 2013 09:14:18 +0000

Comment on Market “Physics” by gregpastik

gregpastik — Tue, 30 Apr 2013 09:14:01 +0000

I am not saying this is what I would do necessarily, Just as an example of what you could do. A back/ratio call spread at $28, could give you better coverage to the downside, but cap your upside. See chart. Then if the ETF turns and seems to bottom before getting to the new breakeven at $25, buy back the short options and turn it into a long call vertical, otherwise if i conitniues down as you feared you then have to re-adjust to protect the downside at $25.

Comment on Market “Physics” by gregpastik

gregpastik — Tue, 30 Apr 2013 09:08:41 +0000

I thought you would have documented some of your research on what you can do to improve the trade. What have you looked at so far? What options combo’s have you looked at? Calendar, vertical, butterfly, etc … Use the price action to determine how you adjust the trade, if it keeps dropping you can not leave it as a naked short put unless you want to get allocated the stock. Adjust until continually until you are right and make it a winner.